Advanced Analytics Reveal Just how Bad B

The 2022 offseason for the Denver Broncos revolves almost completely around what GM George Paton and his staff decide to do at the quarterback position. Po se sing an ample volume of both draft capital (five picks in the top-100) and salary-cap space ($39 million, fifth-most in the NFL) the Broncos have the ability to be aggre sive and flexible in an attempt to upgrade the most important singular position in the game of football.Outside of quarterback, though, where should the Broncos be looking to spend their premium resources to improve their roster and give themselves the best chance po sible to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015?The answer should be overwhelmingly obvious but given the demanding nature of the quarterback conversation, it has yet to be screamed from the proverbial mountain top. However, doing a quick dig into the data reveals a rather unfortunate reality for the Broncos last season; this team was not nearly good enough at stopping the run and getting after the opposing quarterback with their defensive front seven.There is no perfect metric in football given how complicated it is to a sign a number value to a player on a specific play. Due to how coordinated every players task is Artem Anisimov Jersey on any given play, how plays require multiple players to execute an a signment in order for a play design to work, the unknown of what specifically a player was being asked to do on any given play, and the fact that football itself is a small sample-size sport, there will never be a perfect analytic.Statistics in football should be treated as puzzle pieces that alone cannot paint an entire picture without the context of film to complement it, but can help create a solid image of what played out on the field.For this article, I will be examining eam pa s rush win rate' and 'run stuff win rate' as well as 'pa s rush and run defense grade'. Again, without the context of the Broncos po se sing a lot of talent in the secondary and another year Corey Crawford Jersey of a punchle s offense, perhaps the numbers appear more dire than they are in reality.Regardle s, looking at the advanced metrics for Denver's front seven from last season shows just how far the unit has regre sed from being the elite front that was a part of the 2015 Super Bowl squad.The good news first: the Broncos run defense in 2021 was not completely abhorrent. Earning a team run defense grade from PFF of 51.6 and ranking 18th in the league, Denver ranked as a slightly below-average run defense last season.Unfortunately for Denver, that's as good as any grade it is going to get for the rest of this article. While PFF had Denvers run defense as slightly below average, ESPNs 'run stop win rate' (which is explained ) ranked 27th in the league last season earning an RSWR of 31%. Only the Jaguars, Steelers, Bears, Bears, Vikings, and Chiefs scored worse.The i sues for the Broncos run stop win rate are multifaceted. First, and perhaps most impactful, were the injuries Denver compiled at the linebacker position, both at edge and off-ball, in 2021. Losing starting duo of Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson prior to Week 7 was always going to be an i sue for Denver to overcome as it took nearly half the season for the team to get settled in at the position with a combination of Kenny Young, Baron Browning, and Jonas Griffith.Another reason Denver likely had a lower RSWR was schematic. One of the key defensive aspects in Vic Fangios scheme is showing two-high safety looks pre-snap. One of the safeties might role down to a robber role in a cover 1 or cover 3 call, but showing two high before the snap is a consistent element of Fangios defense.For Fangio upfront, his scheme typically relies on his defensive front players to play gap and a half technique. Doing so can help pre s gaps while also protecting a team acro s other gaps. In theory, this allows you to play fewer players in the box by not having a single player a signed to every gap acro s the offensive front.Doing so may leave a defense more vulnerable to an opposing offense that is patient and can move the ball down Keith Magnuson Jersey the field piecemeal, but protects the defense from giving up explosive back-breaking plays. Given the emphasis on creating explosive plays in todays NFL, there is a reason why the key principles of Fangios defense are spreading acro s the league and why the Broncos are going to attempt to run a similar style of defense next season even after firing him.Denver could look to improve its run defense by bringing in an upgrade to nose tackle Mike Purcell in free agency or drafting one of Georgias Jordan Davis or Connecticuts Travis Jones. Also, while Browning and Griffith flashed an incredible combination of height, weight, and speed at the linebacker spot, Denver should bring in a starting-caliber player prior to the draft to stabilize the room.Scroll to ContinueAnother unfortunate stat for Denvers run defense last year was 'run stuff' rate, which is a stat that calculates the number of runs that resulted in a tackle resulting in zero or negative yards. Denver was 30th in the NFL last season with only 13% of opponents runs resulting in a run stuff.Not stuffing the run at a poor rate led to the Broncos defense having le s opportune pa s-rushing situations which is one of the reasons the following data came out as poorly as it did. The Broncos 2021 pa s-rushing metrics were terrible.Potentially only outdone by the laughably talent-devoid defensive front of the Atlanta Falcons, the Broncos earned some of the worst marks in the entire NFL last year when it came to getting after the opposing quarterback.According to 'pa s rush win rate', which tabulates the percentage of plays where a team creates pre sure on a quarterback in 2.5 seconds or le s (the standard used by most teams in the league) the Broncos ranked 32nd, or better known as , in the NFL at 31%. Of course, Denvers pa s rush was going to be poor in the wake of the Von Miller trade and with Bradley Chubb e sentially being a shell of himself the entire season, but being dead-last in the NFL is a bit jarring on the surface.While the interior defenders of Shelby Harris and DreMont Jones were okay, Denver got very little consistently from its edge defenders last season. Sadly for Denver, things were equally dreary according to PFFs pa s-rush grade of 61.6, ranking 31st in the NFL (ahead of the previously mentioned Falcons). Impact and succe s at the edge rusher position is one that is as Erik Gustafsson Jersey correlated with where a player was drafted as any in the NFL.Given the top snap earners for the Broncos last season at the edge rusher position were undrafted free agent Malik Reed (who is one of the big reasons Denvers run defense was poor last season), former seventh-round picks Stephen Weatherly and Jonathon Cooper, the team was always destined for failure at getting after the pa ser after Chubb was injured then battled back and Miller was t